The Ontario government’s record high $232.5-billion 2025 Budget bills itself as “A Plan to Protect Ontario” from the threat and impacts of U.S. tariffs on the province’s economy. Ontarians struggling with low incomes and living in poverty will not see themselves anywhere in this budget, however, leaving them increasingly vulnerable and exposed to economic threats from beyond our borders, and overlooked domestic crises . The word “poverty” is entirely missing from the 250-page budget document, speaking volumes about the government’s priorities.
Simply ignoring poverty does not mean it does not exist or that it will go away on its own. With more than a quarter of Ontarians living in food-insecure households while rates of homelessness surge, poverty remains a persistent and growing crisis in Ontario.
As we outlined in our budget submission, Ontario’s social safety net is frayed, overstretched, and riddled with gaps. With the negative economic impact of U.S. tariffs, low-income Ontarians relying on social assistance need their government to prevent them from plunging deeper into poverty more than ever. They need their government to urgently fix Ontario Works (OW) and the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP), deliver a well-funded, client-centred social assistance system, and ensure all Ontarians can live a dignified and healthy life.
Regrettably, the 2025 Budget offers no plan to raise OW rates at all, or ODSP rates beyond the rate of inflation. It underfunds social assistance programs and prioritizes corporate interests over protecting workers in a time of economic instability and worry.
Shortchanging Social Assistance Amid Growing Need
The Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services—which oversees OW and ODSP—is projected to receive $20.6 billion in 2024−25, a $649-million increase over the government’s projection last year. But this isn’t a lifeline for those in poverty: the boost is driven solely by higher demand for OW and support for asylum seekers, not by any commitment to raising rates closer to livable levels.
While the 2025 Budget includes annual inflation adjustments for ODSP and the Assistance for Children with Severe Disabilities Program, it forecasts a reduction in this funding to $20.4 billion from 2025-26 onward. However, it seems rather optimistic that the budget items attached to these amounts will actually see reductions in keeping with the province’s projections, given economic pressures like persistent inflation which is likely to heighten demand for social assistance. Meanwhile, the projections do align with Ontario’s ongoing trend of cutting per-capita program and social assistance spending, despite economic growth.
A 2024 Financial Accountability Office (FAO) report had projected MCCSS funding of $20.6 billion, which was dismissed by the Ontario government at the time. The FAO report further noted that the 2025 Budget’s MCCSS allocation would require an additional $0.9 billion in 2025-26 and nearly $1.9 billion by 2027-28 to address population growth and higher utilization rates driven by Ontario’s aging population. While the FAO’s projections have been on point in the past, economic disruptions could lead to funding shortfalls far exceeding these estimates, undermining the province’s ability to meet growing social assistance demands.
As the chart below indicates, the government’s budget projections continue to lowball the funding needed to maintain existing programs—leaving marginalized Ontarians without essential supports.
Elsewhere, the Ontario Autism Program under the MCCSS sees a $60 million year-over-year increase in 2025–26, to a total funding of $779 million. While this is a welcome increase, the past increases have not effectively resolved ongoing issues like long waitlists, equitable access across regions, particularly in rural and northern families, who face significant barriers due to limited service providers.
Ontario’s Corporate WSIB Rebates Undermine Workers as Support Systems Fail
The 2025−26 Budget allocates an additional $50 million to the Better Jobs Ontario program to boost vocational and skills training, aiming to help more people transition into jobs and address critical labor market needs. With a concerning 21 per cent drop in social assistance recipients moving to employment from 2019 to 2023, this support is vital. However, the Budget offers little evidence of strengthened employment services for social assistance recipients, leaving doubt that individuals who are trying to find work will have the supports to be successful.
For low-wage workers, the 2025 Budget provides scant support. The government has added a $2 billion rebate for employers through the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board (WSIB), raising the total to $4 billion over two years. Yet, injured worker advocates and union representatives have rightly criticized this WSIB “rebate” as a corporate giveaway that drains funds needed for improved compensation and services for injured workers. With WSIB staff grappling with overwhelming workloads and pushed towards a strike, injured workers face growing risks of being abandoned in a faltering system, while the government prioritizes corporate rebates over human dignity.
Falling Housing Starts Exacerbate Affordable Housing Crisis
The 2025 Budget’s housing projections raise serious concerns about Ontario’s ability to address its affordability crisis. With housing starts expected to decline to 71,800 units – significantly below the 150,000 needed annually to meet provincial targets – the plan appears insufficient to meet growing demand. This grim forecast, coupled with minimal investment in affordable housing, fails renters, especially low-income and vulnerable households. The government’s continued reliance on flawed policies, such as the post-2018 rent control exemption and vacancy decontrol, has not increased rental supply but instead deepened affordability challenges, prioritizing profiteering over tenant stability. The 2025 Budget exposes a government ill-equipped to confront the housing crisis, leaving renters and low-income households to face soaring costs, scarce supply and homelessness.
Insufficient Investment Undermines First Nations Participation in Economic Growth
The Chiefs of Ontario (COO) response to the 2025 Ontario Budget reveals a critical disconnect between the province’s economic priorities and its commitments to First Nations. The Budget allocates $70 million over four years for the Indigenous Participation Fund and $10 million for First Nations scholarships in resource development, steps the COO welcomes but deems insufficient. With “Reconciliation” mentioned only twice compared to 63 references to “mineral” and 16 references to “Ring of Fire,” the Budget prioritizes industrial growth—bolstered by a $500 million Critical Minerals Processing Fund—over meaningful involvement of First Nations. There is also a major concern that the Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act risks undermining Indigenous treaty rights and the Province’s duty to consult. Coupled with the lack of robust Reconciliation measures, this Budget leaves First Nations under-resourced to participate equitably in development processes like the Ring of Fire or in other initiatives flagged by both First Nations leaders and community members as essential to their collective and individual well-being and prosperity.
Ahead of the release of the 2025 Budget, the Premier said he’s “never” gone in and slashed and burned spending in tough times, adding that “You have to put money into the economy to keep things going”. But Budget 2025 is as much defined by what it excludes as it is by what it includes.
It is no longer enough to refer to line items that are intentionally starved for funds as “chronically underfunded”, especially when the province was able to afford a hefty $3 billion on a “Taxpayer Rebate” that provided $200 to every taxpayer in Ontario, regardless of need. Neither can the threat of U.S. tariffs justify the years-long underfunding of critical social assistance programs and supports. As Ontario’s 2025 Budget lavishes billions on corporate rebates, its “protection” crumbles for the people who need it most.